What can the world expect from Iran’s new president?

Is the Iranian President-elect Hassan Rohani, who will be inducted into office on August 13, is really as “rational and moderate” as some journalists say? Is he really a “pragmatic diplomat” who will find positive solutions for the democratic demands of the Iranian civil society? Is he really willing to compromise in respect to awkward problems of world diplomacy trying to change Iranian behaviour in respect to Iran’s nuclear programme?

There is a justifiable approach, that Rohani‘s “rational” strategy will be the continuation of totalitarian goals of the Islamic revolution.

The very first question is who is the state cleric Hojatul-Islam Hassan Rohani? He was Deputy to Second-in-Command of Iran’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (1988-1989). He was Commander of the National Air Defense (1985-1991). He was national Security Advisor to president Rafsanjani and president Khatami. He was Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council for 16 years, 1989-2005. And last but not least, he is since 1989 representative of the Supreme Leader to the Supreme National Security Council.

Rohani supports the idea of exporting the Islamic evolution, supporting Hezbollah and the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Otherwise he would not have all these positions in the Islamic Republic.

It is known, that the ‘Committee for Special Operations’ in which the revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei and Rafsanjani and others are organised, is directly responsible for ordering and planning assassinations in Iran and worldwide. Alberto Nisman, an Argentinean prosecutor stresses, that Rohani has not participated in the meetings of this committee, where terror attacks, including the one against the AMIA Buenos Aires Jewish community centre, were ordered. It is scarcely possible that Rohani was not informed about the planning the 1994 Argentinean attack that killed 85 at a Jewish community centre, recalling his position.

The question about the political responsibility of Rohani remains. It is foolish to assume that if German and Argentinean courts know about the function of the ‘Committee for Special Activities”, then Rohani in his role as the representative of the Supreme leader, didn’t know about it. He doesn’t say anything about the assassinations. Silence is a sign of consent, of approval.

It is highly improbable that Rohani holding It is highly improbable that Rohani holding high security offices was not informed about the assassination of Dr Radjavi in Geneva in April 1990; the assassination of Rahman Borumand in April 1991 in Paris, of Dr Bakhtiar in August 1991, of Fereidun Farokhzad in August 1992, and of the Mykonos assassination in Berlin on September 17, 1992. Almost certainly Rohani oversaw a long string of terrorist plots since 1989.

Furthermore, in all probability Rohani was one of the trategy planners of the Iranian ties with North Korea in 2007, when a cultural and scientific exchange between both countries was planned. Particularly as North Korea shared its nuclear technology know-how with Iran and additionally provided arms and training to Hezbollah.

At his first press conference he declared, that he wants to give Iranians ‘freedom’ under the existing constitution and penal code. He means laws which have cemented Iran’s totalitarian rule.

Shia lawyers have passed laws of stoning and of amputation of body parts. With the new penal legislation, which Rohani defends as a framework for “freedom” the execution of all those who allegedly are “endangering state security” is legalised, in the name of God, leader and the nation.

Freedom for secular dissidents, secular women, Bahai, the biggest religious minority in Iran, of Sufi -Muslims, of Royalists, and of leftists remain a political taboo. The meaning of freedom disappears in the totalitarian dictatorship.

Secular republican lawyers and human rights defenders have stressed in the last few years, that any room for manoeuvre in the interest of the civil society requires a new constitution. Secular lawyers in exile made new drafts of a new secular constitution, which have no totalitarian institutions like the Guardian Council, Security Council or the Supreme leader. Even the Sharia doesn’t play a role any more in these drafts. Only a
democratic constitution would give Iranians a freedom framework.

In the context of the penalty law and the constitution Rohani himself will be forced to compel the Iranian masses to obey, with the help of the revolutionary guards, Bassij, the Islamist plain clothes police, and the so called “nameless soldiers of Imam”, the cruel intelligence service. However the new president needs to solve Iran’s economic problems. This is why many people voted for him. And Rohani fears as the rest of Islamist nomenklatura new uprisings. He needs to stop the imposition of sanctions to solve the problems of Iranian economy. Rohani follows the guideline of the revolutionary leader, who says, that the US government has to accept the Iranian nuclear programme. Khamenei says the critiques of IAEA are unfounded. No wonder Rohani warns the US government not to interfere in the domestic affairs of Iran. Rohani does not want the US government and Europe to continue denouncing human rights violations in Iran or criticising the export of terrorism. Only when the West completely capitulates towards the new totalitarian rule Rohani will be willing to have a dialogue with the US President Obama.

Rohani will have serious difficulties in solving Iran’s economic problems, if he pursues the nuclear programme as he has declared to do. It doesn’t change the problem, if he says, that the sanctions were “a reactionary instrument that no longer fits the times.” The United Nations Security Council has passed four resolutions since 2006 (Resolutions 1737, 1747, 1803 and 1929) demanding that Iran suspend all uranium enrichment and other nuclear activities. Yet Iran still hasthe ability to enrich uranium further for nuclear warheads. Iran’s stockpile is high, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Using its 9,000 centrifuges in fuel enrichment plant in Natanz, Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear warhead in one month. Iran needs to further enrich its low-enriched uranium, which would be suffi cient to fuel six nuclear warheads.

Under Rohani’s government Iran could get a “virtual” nuclear weapon state. It is a fact that Iran has converted some of its low-enriched uranium gas to mediumenriched uranium gas, by about 20 percent. Furthermore Iran has converted about 40 percent of the medium-enriched uranium gas into fuel assemblies for a research reactor.

For a warhead Iran needs 90 percent weapon upgraded enriched Uranium, to process it into a metallic shape. Experts are sure, that the last steps could be done in a short period of time to generate explosion of the metallic highly enriched Uranium in a chain reaction.

Rohani has stressed that Iran will never suspend the Uranium enrichment programme, instead of transferring to another country the full quantity of the 20 percent enriched uranium, to close Fordow and the military plants to which IAEA has no access.

Rohani is likely to behave as the largest nuclear power Machiavellian politician among the last Iranian presidents. This means, internal repression, aggressive export of terrorism with the help of Hezbollah and remaining intransigent on the nuclear issue. In this case Rohani does not have to resort to radical slogan like his predecessor. He can pretend to be “rational” and “moderate” and pursue the totalitarian strategy of a dictatorship which is a danger for its own people and for the world.

This article originally appeared here.