New frontiers of violent extremism between opportunistic alliances and ideological hybridisation: rethinking P/CVE strategies in the contemporary era

by Davide Lauretta and Sara Senno, European Foundation for Democracy

ABSTRACT

Nowadays, violent extremism seems to be a more complex phenomenon compared to the past. Based on the narratives spread by extremist groups in both offline and online dimensions, the boundaries among traditional extremist ideologies appear increasingly blurred and the connections among these different strands of extremism are more evident. Indeed, transnational connections and opportunistic alliances of convenience among extremists of different persuasions appear to be a growing trend.
This is also true considering those groups historically in opposition to each other from an ideological point of view, such as right-wing and Islamist organisations. Despite remaining enemies, they often share similar narratives, content, and techniques for propaganda purposes and to avoid debunking. For instance, anti-migrant and anti-Muslim sentiments persist within the far-right ecosystem, which advocates accelerationist actions to defend ‘white supremacy’ against perceived enemies and their related religion. Simultaneously, Islamist groups continue to express anti-Western sentiments due to perceived impurity, apostasy of their enemies, and historical resentments related to colonialism and imperialism. However, these groups frequently exploit certain crises to spread shared narratives to weaken common targets. This is particularly evident in their opposition to specific governments and authorities, as demonstrated by the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the manifestation of anti-system, anti-government positions, and antisemitic tropes.
Against this backdrop, though still plays a fundamental role, ideology often becomes more fluid and flexible in order to be adapted to the current situations and ‘accommodate’ practical needs to achieve common goals among the different strands of extremism. Several crises that have occurred in the last years perfectly testified to this new trend. Therefore, this work will analyse anti-system/anti-government extremism (ASAGE) to better understand the similarities and connections among different traditional extremist ideologies, including left-wing and anarchist movements, as manifested in this phenomenon.
In light of these considerations, and in view of the increasing complexity of the violent extremism landscape and the lack of agreement on terminology, the paper is also aimed at suggesting a new category of violent extremism characterised by a mix of different extremist ideologies by adopting the expression of “Composite Violent Extremism” (CoVE), as introduced by some scholars. CoVE seems to offer a more nuanced framework for categorising different kinds of interconnections and alliances among different strands of extremism compared to the so-called ‘salad bar extremism’, by providing four primary buckets: ambiguous, mixed, fused, and convergent.
This is not the only innovative aspect that puts the need to rethink P/CVE and counterterrorism and security strategies and actions.
Exacerbating the already complex scenario is the growing interest on the part of extremist groups in the advantages provided by new technologies, and in particular generative AI, which can boost the spread of their narratives - making them more appealable and adapting them easily and quickly to the user-target type-, fuel propaganda, and facilitate online radicalisation and recruitment. Also, the large-scale dissemination of such content and its virality facilitate casual and opportunistic alliances between extremist groups of different beliefs, which can easily target common enemies.
Moreover, it should be considered that, especially after the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, certain protests, anti-system/anti-government sentiments and related conspiracy theories have been shared by the mainstream of society as well. The pandemic has shown that social isolation and economic crises may feed radicalisation processes and foster conspiratorial thinking in society. Violent extremist individuals and groups capitalise on these opportunities by exploiting people’s fears and anger for recruitment purposes, to widen the pool of their followers. Their violent narratives, entrenched with harmful conspiracy theories, define specific targets as responsible for socio-economic troubles and, in general, for the evil in society and incite violence against them. Although people do not automatically start radicalisation processes when their campaigns and protests are influenced and exploited by extremist groups, the boundaries between mainstream and extremist groups’ narratives and actions are extremely blurring. By adopting the expression ‘fringe groups’, the authors also will analyse a segment of society that need to be differentiated by those targeting all strands of extremisms.

The paper can be read here